Germany’s conservative opposition leader Friedrich Merz claimed victory in Germany’s national election on Sunday, while the Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) doubled its support. According to projections, this election served as the strongest showing for a far-right party in Germany since World War II.

The “snap” election took place seven months earlier than originally anticipated, after the current coalition, led by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, collapsed in November 2024. Over the past few months, the German public expressed widespread discontent and a lack of enthusiasm towards any of the candidates.

Chancellor Scholz, a member of the left-center Social Democrats, conceded defeat in what he called “a bitter election result.” The party’s third place finish is projected to be their worst post World War II result in a national parliamentary election.

Merz said he hopes to form a new coalition government by Easter, but he will face many challenges along the way.

Understanding German Elections

Under Germany’s Basic Law, the country typically holds federal elections every four years. The previous election took place in 2021, which mean the next election would have occurred in the fall of 2025. Typically, the Federal President decides the exact date, in coordination with the government and the states. German national elections often occur between the end of September and mid-October.

Major German political parties include the Christian Democratic Union / Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) (historically center-right), the Social Democratic Party (SPD) (historically center-left), Alliance 90 / The Greens (environmentalist, progressive party), the Free Democratic Party (FDP) (classical liberal), Alternative for Germany (AfD) (right-wing populist) and the Left (Die Linke) (democratic socialist).

Germany consists of 84 million citizens, including 59 million who were eligible to elect the 630 members of the lower house of parliament, the Bundestag, who will take their seats under the infamous glass dome of Berlin’s Reichstag building.

Key topics in the lead-up to the 2025 snap election included economic challenges, climate and energy, and European security and defense. Post-pandemic recovery, inflation, and energy prices all put the spotlight on Germany’s economic policy and likely weigh heavy on voter’s minds. Additionally, debates around Germany’s transition away from nuclear and fossil fuels remain a central electoral theme. Also, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 heightened the conversation around defense spending, NATO commitments, and Germany’s role in European security.

The years-long stagnation of Europe’s largest economy, along with increased public pressure to curb migration, dominated campaign headlines. In recent weeks, Merz pushed hard for a tougher approach on immigration.

The Task Ahead

This election occurred at of time of increasing uncertainty over the future of US-Europe relations. In a shocking turn of events on Monday, the US voted against a UN resolution condemning Russia for the Ukraine war, alongside Russia and North Korea.

The newly elected conservative leader, Merz, said, “The most important thing is to re-establish a viable government in Germany as quickly as possible.”

"I am aware of the responsibility," Merz said. "I am also aware of the scale of the task that now lies ahead of us. I approach it with the utmost respect, and I know that it will not be easy. The world out there isn't waiting for us, and it isn't waiting for long-drawn-out coalition talks and negotiations."

Germany is the most populous country in the 27-nation European Union and a leading member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which formed following World War II to prevent future wars in Europe. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Germany has been Ukraine’s second biggest weapons supplier, behind only the United States.

Moving forward, the nation will be central in shaping the continent’s response to future challenges, including the Trump administration’s “America First” rhetoric and policies.

Rise of the Far-Right and Why it’s Significant

The anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD), Germany’s far-right party, received approximately 20.5% of total votes, according to current national projections. This result is unprecedented at the federal level, marking a significant shift in Germany’s political landscape. Increased public support for the far-right party will also make future efforts to form a coalition quite challenging.

German governments almost always operate as coalitions between multiple parties. All mainstream parties in Germany (CDU/CSU, SPD, Greens, and FDP) have publicly and repeatedly ruled out partnering with the AfD, citing its right-wing nationalist, anti-immigration, and Eurosceptic stance.

Despite the AfD’s second-place finish, the CDU/CSU leadership (including Friedrich Merz) has consistently stated they will not form a coalition or even a formal cooperation agreement with the AfD. This stance is deeply rooted in Germany’s postwar political tradition of maintaining a “firewall” against the far right.

Even if the AfD is not in government, however, placing second in the election could shift the political dialogue, especially on immigration, border control, the EU, and fiscal policy. For example, the AfD’s strong electoral showing might push Merz and the CDU/CSU to adopt stricter stances on migration and asylum to prevent losing voters to the far right.

Additionally, Merz is viewed as more fiscally conservative and business-friendly. However, the AfD’s Eurosceptic narrative could pressure the governing coalition to be more cautious on EU-wide financial support mechanisms or deeper integration.

Europe’s Uncertain Future

What does the strong electoral showing by the AfD mean for the future of Europe?

Following the election on Sunday, AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla told cheering supporters that “we have achieved something historic today.”

A large AfD faction in the Bundestag could intensify political polarization, mirroring developments in other European countries. This might manifest in heated parliamentary debates, along with public protests and counter-protests.

The AfD often uses Bundestag debate to spotlight issues like migration, the “cost of climate measures,” or “Brussels bureaucracy.” Additionally, a stronger AfD presence in government might energize both supporters and opponents, possibly leading to more visible street-level activism and social tension.

The AfD could also jeopardize Germany’s relations with other EU nations. While a Merz-led government will likely stay committed to European integration and work to maintain close ties with France, Italy, and other key partners, the AfD’s strong performance might raise concerns among EU leaders about Germany’s long-term commitment to EU cohesion.

Internal pressure from the AfD’s rhetoric could lead the new government to push harder for stricter external border controls or more robust return mechanisms for failed asylum seekers - a stance that might strain relations with EU frontline states, unless handled cooperatively.

Ultimately, the AfD’s second place finish echoes the broader trend of right-wing or populist parties gaining ground in Europe, including in Italy, France and Sweden. Moving forward, this success may embolden similar parties across the continent.

Meanwhile, parties like Merz’ CDU/CSU might respond by emphasizing security, national identity, and economic stability to placate voters leaning rightward, potentially reshaping Germany’s traditionally moderate center-right stance.

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